[ This post has been sent to me by an anonymous reader.]
First round is almost over, and we have nearly taken the Maldives back. If we view the election as a vote of no-confidence, clearly Gayoom has lost. But we all must remember he needs about 12% or 25,000-35,000 votes to win in the second round (based on figures announced around 10 am). MDP should not be overconfident of a win in the second round. Such a confidence depends on these assumptions:
1. How many who supported Gasim Ibrahim actually would have supported Gayoom? (This question is relevant because in terms of economic favours to individual voters Gasim and Gayoom are more favourable than Hassan Saeed)
2. How many who voted Hassan Saeed would have voted Gayoom? (In terms of capability -- education -- and experience)
3. How many who voted Hassan Saeed and Gasim think Anni is the better candidate than Gayoom? Or alternatively, how many of them think Anni is the lesser evil? (Here questions like misconception about MDP's connections with foreign elements and 'churches' apply too.)
I want to be optimistic and suggest that most who voted Hassan Saeed and Gasim were united by their dislike towards Gayoom than their dislike towards Anni. But we cannot be too optimistic because Gayoom needs about 12% to win, while Anni needs about 25%.
Difficulties:
Hassan Saeed might not endorse MDP. One possible reason is he may be looking forward to the next presidential election. He might be pessimistic about an MDP-led government. He might be neutral between Gayoom and MDP. Remember he is the most centrist candidate.
Some recommendations:
Since we cannot automatically assume the 25% votes more Anni needs, the best that remains is to join forces against Gayoom. MDP must not be too confident not to do their best to bring at least Hassan Saeed to their side.
MDP should make some compromises. Ideally, if the laws allow, MDP should consider replacing Dr Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik with Hassan Saeed as Anni’s running mate.
To bring in Hassan Saeed and his voters, MDP must consider repackaging their manifesto and policies taking the appealing policies from Hassan Saeed’s manifesto and policies such as the idea of bringing capable people to form a unity government.
In my opinion Gasim must be their last option, mainly because Gasim does not appeal to the reform oriented, change oriented, young people. He is seen as an uneducated, greedy rich person, without democratic credibility because of his business empire and influence in the society. However, MDP should look for Adhaalath’s support.
Finally, even if Ibrahim Ismail did the worst in this election, he still could bring political moral credibility and weight to Anni.
First round is almost over, and we have nearly taken the Maldives back. If we view the election as a vote of no-confidence, clearly Gayoom has lost. But we all must remember he needs about 12% or 25,000-35,000 votes to win in the second round (based on figures announced around 10 am). MDP should not be overconfident of a win in the second round. Such a confidence depends on these assumptions:
1. How many who supported Gasim Ibrahim actually would have supported Gayoom? (This question is relevant because in terms of economic favours to individual voters Gasim and Gayoom are more favourable than Hassan Saeed)
2. How many who voted Hassan Saeed would have voted Gayoom? (In terms of capability -- education -- and experience)
3. How many who voted Hassan Saeed and Gasim think Anni is the better candidate than Gayoom? Or alternatively, how many of them think Anni is the lesser evil? (Here questions like misconception about MDP's connections with foreign elements and 'churches' apply too.)
I want to be optimistic and suggest that most who voted Hassan Saeed and Gasim were united by their dislike towards Gayoom than their dislike towards Anni. But we cannot be too optimistic because Gayoom needs about 12% to win, while Anni needs about 25%.
Difficulties:
Hassan Saeed might not endorse MDP. One possible reason is he may be looking forward to the next presidential election. He might be pessimistic about an MDP-led government. He might be neutral between Gayoom and MDP. Remember he is the most centrist candidate.
Some recommendations:
Since we cannot automatically assume the 25% votes more Anni needs, the best that remains is to join forces against Gayoom. MDP must not be too confident not to do their best to bring at least Hassan Saeed to their side.
MDP should make some compromises. Ideally, if the laws allow, MDP should consider replacing Dr Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik with Hassan Saeed as Anni’s running mate.
To bring in Hassan Saeed and his voters, MDP must consider repackaging their manifesto and policies taking the appealing policies from Hassan Saeed’s manifesto and policies such as the idea of bringing capable people to form a unity government.
In my opinion Gasim must be their last option, mainly because Gasim does not appeal to the reform oriented, change oriented, young people. He is seen as an uneducated, greedy rich person, without democratic credibility because of his business empire and influence in the society. However, MDP should look for Adhaalath’s support.
Finally, even if Ibrahim Ismail did the worst in this election, he still could bring political moral credibility and weight to Anni.
1 comment:
very good observations.
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